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TIRUERT – 2023

New opportunities

  • VOLUMES 2023 : The ball is open and the volumes can be marketed too. GREENEA has already marketed several contracts for this new year.
  • RENEWABLE HYDROGEN : Hydrogen from renewable sources is entering the TIRUERT market alongside biofuels and renewable electricity from public charging stations. However, the size of this market would remain much smaller – in the short term – than the market for renewable electricity certificates and biofuels. This is good news for the players in the sector who will also be able to sell their certificates, but without impacting the market in the short term.
  • On the subject of traceability for marketed renewable electricity: On the audit side, the subject is clarified by the government, which has given guidelines on this subject. MID meters are not mandatory in AC and DC for volume marketing. Indeed, the DGEC may request available measurements from the distribution network operator on the reference points supplying your charging infrastructures.

Outlook 2023

 

  • TIRUERT market potential: 400 to 600 GWh of energy from the terminal (about 80 to 120 GWh of renewable electricity) could be marketed in 2023.
  • The TIRUERT and its benefits are starting to be taken into account by the IRVE market playersThis is the case for communities, investors in electric recharging infrastructure, and a fortiori by developers and operators who see this as a way to reduce their selling prices in the face of rising energy costs.
  • The supply of TIRUERT certificates sold in the market is still far below the size of the market and therefore the impact of the surplus of certificates that was expected to arrive in 2023 has not yet been felt.
  • On the demand side, buyer obligations increase in 2023 – mandates continue to rise and buyers must now incorporate about 2.6% more renewable energy compared to 2022. Renewable electricity and hydrogen certificates have their place in meeting this excess demand.
  • Thus the selling price remains stable for the moment, but uncertain. However, the trend is upward. We see a change of about 2% from December 2022.

 

And in the medium term?

 

The main challenge for all the actors of the TIRUERT market will be to prepare the horizon 2025-2030 which for the moment remains uncertain. Indeed, the supply of certificates (biofuels, renewable electricity and hydrogen) is becoming more and more important and diversified and the demand is growing insufficiently (only about +2.5% between 2022 and 2023 and about +3.5% between 2023 and 2024).  Thus, the growth of biofuel mandates will have to accelerate rapidly in order to maintain the price of TIRUERT certificates and avoid its collapse, which could dampen investment prospects in the field of alternative fuels.